Every August we get some version of the same call: “We were going to list this spring, we didn’t get to it, and now we’re wondering — should we just wait until next year?”
It’s a fair question, and the honest answer isn’t the one you’ll get from most listing presentations. Fall is not a bad time to sell in the Twin Cities. It is a different time to sell, with a measurable set of tradeoffs. Once you can see those tradeoffs in actual numbers, the decision usually makes itself.
Here’s what the data says, and how we’d think about it with you.
Where the Market Stands Right Now
The most recent full month of regional data available as of mid-August 2026 is June 2026, reported by Minneapolis Area REALTORS® from NorthstarMLS:
- Median sales price: $410,000, up 2.1% from June 2025
- Days on market: 42, up from 39 a year earlier
- Inventory: 10,897 homes, up 5.1% year over year
- Months supply: 2.8 — still a seller’s market by the traditional definition, but the most balanced it’s been in several years
- Percent of original list price received: 99.6%
Meanwhile, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.67% for the week of August 13, 2026, per Freddie Mac — a hair below the prior week and remarkably stable through the summer.
Read together, that’s a market with real momentum on price but softening urgency. Sellers are still getting close to asking. Buyers are no longer sprinting.
The Seasonal Pattern Is Real — and Predictable
Here’s where the fall conversation gets specific. Rather than guess, look at what the Twin Cities market actually did across last fall and winter:
- Days on market: 40 in July 2025, 42 in August, 44 in September, 48 in October, 50 in November, 58 in December
- Percent of original list price received: 99.3% in July, 98.8% in August, 98.4% in September, 98.1% in October, 97.5% in November, 96.8% in December
- Median sales price: $400,000 in August, $390,000 in September and October, $386,824 in November, $380,000 in December
So yes — the market cools as the leaves turn. But look at the actual magnitude. Between August and October, the typical home took about six days longer to go under contract and gave up roughly seven-tenths of a percentage point off its original list price. On a $450,000 home, that’s about $3,000 and a week.
That’s not a collapse. It’s a modest, knowable cost — and one that’s frequently smaller than what you’d spend carrying a home you’ve already mentally moved out of for another six months.
What Fall Gives You in Return
The seasonal story usually gets told as pure downside. It isn’t.
Competition drops off a cliff. New listings in the Twin Cities ran 6,380 in September 2025, then fell to 5,927 in October, 3,751 in November, and just 2,592 in December. By late fall, your home is competing against roughly half the inventory it would have faced in the spring. For a well-presented home in a desirable area, that’s a genuine advantage — and it’s the reason we sometimes recommend a November listing rather than tolerate it.
The remaining buyers are serious. Nobody tours homes in a Minnesota November for entertainment. Fall and winter buyers are typically relocating for a job, timing a school-year transition, working against a rate lock, or closing out a 1031 exchange. Fewer showings, higher conversion.
Affordability improves at the margin. The regional housing affordability index sat at 116 in June 2026 — near the low end of the past two years — but it read 124 last September as prices seasonally eased. A buyer priced out in June may pencil out in October.
Where Fall Actually Works Best
Not every property responds to the season the same way, and this is where local knowledge matters more than any statewide average.
St. Croix Valley properties may be at their best. Homes in Stillwater, Marine on St. Croix, Afton, Hudson, and Osceola sell substantially on setting. Peak color along the river bluffs typically lands in early-to-mid October, and a listing photographed then — river views, mature oaks, the whole valley doing its thing — presents better than the same house in gray March. If your home’s argument is lifestyle, fall is arguably your strongest season.
Family-sized homes in strong school districts get harder. Buyers relocating for Stillwater Area Schools, Mahtomedi, or the School District of Hudson have largely made their moves by August. That demand thins in the fall and returns in February. If your home’s core buyer is a family chasing an attendance area, spring may genuinely be worth the wait.
New construction and move-in-ready homes hold up well. Fall and winter buyers are disproportionately impatient. Homes that need nothing sit at the top of a short list.
If You Do List This Fall, Price It Right the First Time
The single clearest lesson in the seasonal data is about pricing discipline. The percent-of-original-list-price figure declines steadily through the fall — and that number is driven overwhelmingly by homes that launched too high in September and spent three months chasing the market down.
A fall market gives you materially less room to test a price. There simply aren’t enough buyers cycling through to correct an aggressive number quickly. Homes priced correctly in week one still perform well in October. Homes priced 5% over hope generally end up accepting less in January than they would have gotten in September.
The same discipline applies to presentation: leaves cleared, gutters clean, warm interior light staged for 4:30 p.m. darkness, and photos shot before the color drops rather than after.
Let’s Look at Your Specific Situation
Regional averages are a starting point, not an answer. What matters is your neighborhood, your price band, your buyer, and your timeline — and whether the cost of waiting until spring is larger or smaller than the cost of selling now.
We’re glad to run those numbers with you honestly, including telling you when waiting is the better call. That happens more often than you might expect, and we’d rather be right than busy.
Thinking about a fall move? Reach out to the Carchedi Group for a straightforward read on your timing, or find out what your home is worth today to start with a real number.
Market figures reflect Minneapolis Area REALTORS® data through June 2026 (the most recent full month available as of August 2026) and Freddie Mac’s weekly survey as of August 13, 2026. All figures change month to month. Seasonal patterns describe the Twin Cities region as a whole and may differ meaningfully in your specific market.